jueves, 9 de agosto de 2012

Syrian threats to turkey

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/07/syrian-becoming-direct-danger.html

Syrian Conflict Is Posing Four Major Threats to Turkey

A Free Syrian Army soldier arranges his rifle before he praying with his comrades at the Bab Al-Salam border crossing to Turkey July 22, 2012. (photo by REUTERS/Umit Bektas)

By: Sami Kohen posted on Wednesday, Jul 25, 2012

The situation in Syria is having a direct, negative effect on Turkey. Developments in Syria are at the root of four new threats:

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

Summary:

As the Syrian crisis rages on, neighboring Turkey continues to bear the brunt of the fallout. With a long and unstable shared border, a potential Kurdish takeover in Northern Syria, tens of thousands of refugees and the threat of Assad's chemical weapons, Sami Kohen argues that Turkey could soon be thrown into the center of Syria's fight.

Publisher: Milliyet (Turkey)
Original Title:
Syrian Becoming Direct Danger
Author: Sami Kohen
Published on: Wednesday, Jul 25, 2012
Translated On: Wednesday, Jul 25, 2012
Translator: Timur Goksel

Categories : Security

Turkey

Syria

The first new threat revolves around the issue of border security. After the latest clashes, most of the Turkish-Syrian border is now under control of anti-Assad forces. Many border posts are now occupied by the Free Syrian Army, but the fighting has not ceased. Army units are still present in towns and the gunfire persists. Until the fate of the Assad regime is decided, the instability in the border region will continue. This, in turn, requires the Turkish army to remain on standby along this long border.

Recent attacks on Turkish trucks have made the tenuous security situation on the border all the more obvious. Some officials have claimed that these incidents could be linked to smuggling and looting activities, but the reality is that the border area is neither calm nor secure. All contacts with this once lively region have been cut off.

The second threat is the Kurdish takeover of Northern Syria, and the likelihood of the region becoming a new base for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). As Syrian army units are transferred away from Northern Syria to Damascus and other hot spots, the resulting vacuum has been filled by local Kurdish groups. Many towns were taken over by Kurdish forces without any clashes.

The Democratic Union Party (PYD), which some consider the Syrian extension of the PKK, was among the multitude of Kurdish groups that recently congregated during a meeting called for by Massoud Barzani. For Kurdish nationalists and militants, it is important to take advantage of the current disarray and move toward their own goals, one of which is a Kurdish-dominated autonomous region in northern Syria.

The current absence of authority in the region has emboldened the Syrian Kurds. Turkey will now face a “Northern Syria issue” similar to that in Iraq. Therefore, Ankara has to define its strategy with this reality in mind, just as with Northern Iraq.

The Kurds might now seek to deploy the PKK in Northern Syria just as they did in Northern Iraq, and there is a danger that they might launch operations against Turkey from there. This means that a new phase in the battle against the PKK might begin. Various institutions in Turkey are studying the issue.

The third threat is that posed by the Syrian refugee issue. From the outset, Turkey opened its gates to those escaping from Assad and welcomed them into camps. In recent days, as the number of refugees increased [to the roughly 50,000 currently in Turkey] there were reports of unpleasant incidents in the camps. Clashes with refugees on Turkish soil are just as undesirable as a massive refugee influx. If this turns into a serious problem, Ankara might have to look for other solutions, such as erecting camps on the Syrian side of the border within a “humanitarian buffer zone.”

Finally, the fourth danger that Turkey faces is the use of chemical and biological weapons. Syria has officially acknowledged that it possesses such weapons. According to the Syrian government, these weapons will not be used against Syrians but only against foreign attackers. This declaration and the possibility of these weapons ending up in the hands of terrorist groups have generated a strong reaction across the world, including from the US, Europe, Israel and many Arab countries. Naturally the issue concerns Turkey, especially given that the tension with Assad is so high.

In a nutshell, the Syrian crisis has reached a point where the Pandora’s box is likely to be opened. And Turkey tops the list of those directly affected by the crisis.

Turkish support of Syrian opposition

One of the main opposition groups, the Syrian National Council (SNC), is an umbrella organization that was formed by activists in Istanbul on 24 August. The SNC has received economic support from Turkey, who hosts an SNC office. The organization also met with the United Kingdom and United States. The SNC called for the Syrian government to be overthrown by a united opposition, rejected dialogue with Assad, and, though officially against military intervention, requested international protection of the population. In contrast, another main group, the National Co-ordination Committee (NCC) advocated for dialogue with the government, believing that toppling the Assad regime would lead to further chaos. On 31 December, these two groups signed an agreement to unite against the government. Another group, the Free Syrian Army, comprised of an estimated 15,000 defected Syrian soldiers, executed retaliatory attacks against Syrian forces.

Syrian refugees - where to?

Syrian refugees: a humanitarian crisis

Hend Kortam / July 22, 2012 / 1 Comment

As the violence in Syria flares up, Syrians fleeing to neighbouring countries face hardships.

Syrian-Kurdish refugee camp at Domiz in northern Kurdistan
AFP

At least 9000 Syrian refugees entered into the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq on Sunday, according to the Chinese Xinhua News Agency.

Yet, as thousands of Syrians flee their country to escape the violence; their situation seems to only get worse with Baghdad announcing on Friday that it will no longer be able to allow Syrians into Iraq, citing security reasons.

Ali El Dabagh, an Iraqi government spokesman said on Iraqi TV “We had hoped to help our Syrian refugee brothers,” according to AFP. It is estimated that the number of Syrian refugees in Iraq is between 5,000 and 8,000 according to various media reports.
Iraq is not the only country bordering Syria that no longer welcomes the entry of Syrian refugees. On Thursday, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Baraksaid that Israel will not allow Syrians to enter the Golan Heights should the Syrians choose to seek asylum there and that they will be stopped if needed, according to the Associated Press (AP).
In response to Ehud Barak’s statements, the Dublin centre for Amnesty International wrote a letter to the minister, urging him to ensure that anyone who is at risk of crimes against humanity or war crimes “be allowed to benefit from effective and systematic protection procedures and safeguards to prevent their forcible return to Syria where they may face serious human rights abuses.”
Amnesty international also explained that the statements were particularly concerning as violence in Syria escalates.

There are 120,000 Syrian refugees located in Syria’s neighbouring countries, according to France 24. Most Syrian refugees are in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, said Al Jazeera. There are almost 10,000 in Egypt. According to Reuters, the UN Refugee Agency expects the number of Syrians who will leave the country this year to be 185,000.

Syrian refugees

Syria: refugee crisis looms as 50,000 flee to Turkey

The number of Syrian refugees in Turkey who have fled the escalating violence in their strife-torn homeland has reached more than 50,000, Turkish officials said on Thursday.

Syria: Assad regime launches new offensive against rebels as the UN talks

Syrian refugees at the Turkey- Syria border in Hatay Photo: EPA

12:36PM BST 09 Aug 2012

The total number of the refugees was 50,227 as of Thursday after more than 5,000 Syrians crossed into Turkey this week, the country's Disaster and Emergency Administration said in a statement posted on its website.

A Turkish foreign ministry official at the border told AFP some 2,300 Syrians including low-ranking military defectors fled to Turkey in the last 24 hours.

This week has seen a marked increase in the number of refugees making their way to Turkey amid escalating clashes in Syria's northern city of Aleppo.

Syrian regime troops battled rebels in central Aleppo on Thursday a day after launching a ground assault backed by air power for control of the commercial capital.

In addition to taking in refugees, Turkey is providing sanctuary to Syrian military defectors in a separate camp near the border where security is tighter.

Senior Syrian officers have been crossing into Turkey to link up with the rebel Free Syrian Army on an almost daily basis in recent months, often accompanied by rank-and-file troops.

Source: AFP

martes, 7 de agosto de 2012

US and Turkey on syria

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a half-hour-plus telephone discussion with U.S. President Barack Obama about Syria, during which they agreed to accelerate efforts for a transition period, which includes the exit of President Bashar al-Assad. But at the same time, the chaos and violence that has been created in Syria is now starting to affect the stability of Turkey itself. With widespread fears of Syria' break-up and the creation of a "Greater Kurdistan," possibly including parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon is now in Istanbul, where he said Syria should remain united. "We don't see for the future of Syria an autonomous Kurdish area or territory. We want to see a Syria that remains united ... we don't support any movement towards autonomy or separatism, which we think would be a slippery slope. We are very clear about that."
Nonetheless, a taste of what will happen if Syria breaks up or Turkey sends troops, is now emerging. In Malatya Province in southeast Turkey, there was a flare-up between Alevi and Sunni communities in a small village, on July 29, when a quarrel between an Alevi family and a Sunni Ramadan drummer almost escalated into a riot, Sunnis surrounding the Alevi family's home and starting to throw stones. The security forces intervened to save the family.
The incident has been taken very seriously, and a delegation of MPs from both the ruling AKP and opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) rushed to the town to calm the situation. An Alevi demonstration sprang up in Ankara, protesting the attack.
Although this province does not border Syria, it is not far from it; there are Alevis in Syria, many of whom have relatives in Turkey, who are threatened by the chaos and violence provoked by the predominantly Sunni and foreign opposition gangs.
Meanwhile in Hakkari province in the southeast, bordering Iraq and Iran, 10,000 Turkish troops have been deployed over the last week against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) operations in the region. On July 29, two Turkish soldiers were killed and ten wounded. The PKK-allied Syrian Kurdish PYD is being supported by Massoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq, which is supposed to be cooperating with Turkey in marshaling the Syrian Kurds against the Damascus government.
Opposition CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has been spearheading a campaign against Ankara's policy, has another long interview in the usually pro-government daily Today's Zaman in which he charges that Prime Minister Erdogan "does not design the country's foreign policy. This is the problem...the foreign policy followed by the government is imposed by foreign powers and he thinks these powers will support him.... A country must be aware of who has drawn the current borders in the Middle East.... Turkey has become a country which shoots itself in the foot. Imperialist powers don't care about al-Assad or the Syrian people. They have a new Middle East map in their minds. These maps are even published in our papers. Wasn't it known that Syria would be divided into three parts?"

Syrian lessons for Turkey

As the Syrian crisis unfolds with the bloody and potentially decisive battle of Aleppo, the implications for Turkey are also becoming clearer. Overall, there seem to be three major factors emerging. First, with the Syrian crisis, Turkey saw the limits of its regional influence.
Although Ankara and the official discourse of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will not admit this point, the days when Turkey saw itself as the most important “central” player, able to reshape the region in its own vision of economic interdependence and regional security under Turkish leadership, are now history. The actions of Damascus in dealing with the uprising and the rejection of any reformist trajectory recommended by Ankara during the early stages of the rebellion have clearly shown the limits of Turkish leverage with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Unlike what most critics argue, the Syrian crisis is not a failure for Turkey’s zero-problems strategy. The zero-problems strategy was the right one to pursue with Syria. Between 2002 and 2010, this policy paid high diplomatic, economic and political dividends. The real mistake was the naive belief that Turkey could radically change Syria. In other words, Ankara exaggerated what its soft power over Damascus could achieve. It was particularly absurd to believe that Turkey could replace Iran’s influence over Syria. Ankara failed to understand the balance of power in Damascus and how the regime would react in the face of an existential crisis. The second lesson of the Syrian crisis for Turkey is related to the Kurdish question. What is unfolding in the Kurdish regions of Syria and the panic in Turkey about the emergence of a pro-Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) region at its southern border clearly shows that the Kurdish question remains Turkey’s Achilles heel. Simply put, Turkey wasted the last four years by not democratizing its Constitution and political system in order to address the root causes of its own Kurdish conflict. A more democratic, decentralized and reformist Turkey would have come much closer to “solving” the Kurdish problem at home. Unless Turkey manages to urgently address the root causes of the Kurdish problem at home, Ankara will remain vulnerable and regional actors will always exploit this weakness. Turkey’s chances to project political, economic, diplomatic and military influence in its neighborhood depend on its ability to first solve its own ethnic issue. The third lesson emerging for Turkey with regards to Syria is related to sectarianism. Before the Syrian crisis unfolded, Turkey tried hard to transcend the Sunni-Shiite sectarian divide in the Middle East. For instance, when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan went to Iraq last year, he became the first leader of a predominantly Sunni country to visit the holy sites in Najaf. Erdoğan also spent two hours with the most important Shiite cleric in Iraq, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The crisis in Syria, however, put an end to this positive image of Turkey. Today, Turkey is perceived in the region and by its own population as primarily a Sunni actor that is particularly close to the Muslim Brotherhood. As The New York Times’ lead Sunday story “As Syrian War Roils, Sectarian Unrest Seeps into Turkey” indicates, this situation has major ramifications for Turkey. Here is how The New York Times sums it up: “Many Turkish Alawites, estimated at 15 million to 20 million strong and one of the biggest minorities in this country, seem to be solidly behind Syria’s embattled strongman, Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey’s government, and many Sunnis, supports the Syrian rebels. The Alawites fear the sectarian violence spilling across the border. Already, the sweltering, teeming refugee camps along the frontier are fast becoming caldrons of anti-Alawite feelings.” One may disagree with The New York Times analysis, but it is nevertheless important to acknowledge that the Sunni vs. Alawite nature of the conflict in Syria may also inflame Turkey’s own sectarian divides. In that sense, the lessons from Syria are not confined to just the Kurdish question. With the principle that perception creates reality, let’s conclude with another excerpt from The New York Times. “Many Alawites in Turkey, especially in eastern Turkey where Alawites tend to speak Arabic and are closely connected to Alawites in Syria, are suspicious of the bigger geopolitics, and foreign policy analysts say they may have a point. The Turkish government is led by an Islamist-rooted party that is slowly but clearly trying to bring more religion, particularly Sunni Islam, into the public sphere, eschewing decades of purposefully secular rule. Alawites here find it deeply unsettling, and a bit hypocritical, that Turkey has teamed up with Saudi Arabia, one of the most repressive countries in the world, and Qatar, a religious monarchy, both Sunni, to bring democracy to Syria.” http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-288702-syrian-lessons-for-turkey.html

syria pro terrorists in Turkey

Turkish PM: Syrian President Supports PKK Terror

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Tuesday, 7 August 2012

by A.Taghiyeva, Trend AZ

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad supports the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party, hoping that there will be problems for Turkey as a result of it, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview with Turkish TV channel ATV on Monday.

He said the PKK members, supported by Assad regime, try to infiltrate into Turkish territory. Thus, about 200 members of the terrorist organization, attempting to infiltrate into Turkey and organize terrorist attacks there, were promptly detained and rendered harmless.

Erdogan said that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's visit to the Kurdish autonomy was aimed at addressing terrorism issue.

"In talks with the Kurdish administration, we gave them to understand that if the PKK terrorist organization receives support from them, then friendly relations between Turkey and autonomy will end," he said.

The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has lasted for over 25 years. The PKK is recognised as a terrorist organisation by both the UN and the EU.

Following the June 27 report that the armed detachments of the Kurdistan Workers' Party took control over northern Syria, the Turkish Army was alerted, and additional troops and military equipment were deployed on the border with Syria.

According to UN, the total number of victims of the conflict in Syria has exceeded 17,000 people. About 230,000 people became refugees. About three million people is in need of humanitarian assistance. The Syrian authorities say that they oppose the well-armed militants.

Tuesday, 7 August 2012

UN reso 3 August

No: 195, 4 August 2012, Press Release Regarding the Resolution on Syria Adopted by the UN General Assembly

At a time when the situation in Syria is acquiring a more tragic dimension each day, we welcome the adoption on 3 August 2012 of the resolution submitted to the UN General Assembly by the co-sponsorship of more than 60 countries, including Turkey, with 133 votes in favor. The support lent to this resolution by such an overwhelming majority constitutes a flagrant indication that the conscience of the international community will no longer remain indifferent to the bloodshed and tears in Syria, and that as long as the people continues to be subjugated to violence and oppression in Syria, acting in solidarity, the international community will resolutely stand against the regime which is responsible for these atrocities.

The international community has emphasized through this resolution that an orderly political transition process must be initiated in the country; condemned gross and systematic human rights abuses of the Regime which is trying to suppress, by use of violence, the rightful and legitimate demands of the Syrian people; underlined that those responsible will not be able to escape from being held accountable and made clear that it will continue to stand by the people of Syria until they eventually achieve their legitimate demands.

The Syrian Administration, by comprehending without delay the strong message delivered by the international community through this resolution, must promptly fulfil the requirements of the resolution without creating a need for further measures. It is not possible to stand before the will of the people. A futile war waged against the people can only result in a higher civilian death toll. The sooner the people of Syria reaches its legitimate demands, the quicker Syria will reach stability and be able to walk, with confident steps, towards a prosperous, bright future. To this end, Turkey will continue its support for the aspirations of the Syrian people for democracy, human rights and freedom.

turkey on syria

In 2011, Turkey broke with the government of Syria over the government of President Bashar al-Assad’s ruthless crackdown on protests. Over the next year, Turkey became an increasingly important base of support and refuge for the anti-Assad forces.
Tensions on the Syrian-Turkish border increased significantly in June 2012, when Syria downed a Turkish jet that it said had crossed into its airspace.
The 550-mile border has become a critical fault line and potential flash point, used by an increasingly sophisticated network of activists in southern Turkey smuggling crucial supplies into Syria including weapons, communications gear, field hospitals and even salaries for soldiers who defect. At the same, it has offered escape routes to tens of thousands of fugitive Syrian civilians and to increasingly high-ranking military defectors.
Mounting Concerns as Syria’s Conflict Goes On
By the summer of 2012, as Syria’s civil war degenerated into a bloody sectarian showdown between the government’s Alawite-dominated troops and the Sunni Muslim majority, tensions were increasing across the border between Turkey’s Alawite minority and the Sunni Muslim majority.
Many Turkish Alawites, estimated at 15 million to 20 million strong and one of the biggest minorities in this country, seem to be solidly behind Syria’s embattled strongman, President Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey’s government, and many Sunnis, supports the Syrian rebels.
The Alawites fear the sectarian violence spilling across the border. Already, the sweltering, teeming refugee camps along the frontier are fast becoming caldrons of anti-Alawite feelings.
Many Alawites in Turkey, especially in eastern Turkey where Alawites tend to speak Arabic and are closely connected to Alawites in Syria, are suspicious of the bigger geopolitics, and foreign policy analysts say they may have a point. The Turkish government is led by an Islamist-rooted party that is slowly but clearly trying to bring more religion, particularly Sunni Islam, into the public sphere, eschewing decades of purposefully secular rule. Alawites here find it deeply unsettling, and a bit hypocritical, that Turkey has teamed up with Saudi Arabia, one of the most repressive countries in the world, and Qatar, a religious monarchy, both Sunni, to bring democracy to Syria.
The Alawites point to the surge of foreign jihadists streaming into Turkey, en route to fight a holy war on Syria’s battlefields. Many jihadists are fixated on turning Syria, which under the Assad family’s rule has been one of the most secular countries in the Middle East, into a pure Islamist state.

Alawites in Turkey are worried they could become easy targets. Historically, they have been viewed with suspicion across the Middle East by mainstream Muslims and often scorned as infidels. The Alawite sect was born in the ninth century and braids together religious beliefs, including reincarnation, from different faiths.
Many Alawites do not go to a mosque; they tend to worship at home or in Alawite temples that have been denied the same state support in Turkey that Sunni mosques get. Many Alawite women do not veil their faces or even cover their heads. The towns they dominate in eastern Turkey, where young women sport tank tops and tight jeans, feel totally different than religious Sunni towns just a few hours away, where it can be difficult even to find a woman in public.
Worry Over Syrian Kurds
In July, Turkey sent troops, armored personnel carriers and missile batteries to the border with Syria after chunks of Syria fell into the hands of Kurdish militias.
Turkish concerns are focused on the apparent ascendancy in the region of the Democratic Union Party (P.Y.D.), a Syrian Kurdish movement regarded as an offshoot of Turkey’s banned Kurdish Workers Party (P.K.K.).
The P.Y.D. has been playing a double game in the Syrian conflict. While the country’s marginalized Kurds were generally wary of being sucked into the expanding internal war, the P.Y.D. stood accused of siding with the Assad regime by cracking down on rival Kurdish movements.
In recent weeks, Syrian forces were reported to have withdrawn from areas of Syrian Kurdistan, effectively handing them over to P.Y.D. militias who proceeded to raise the flag of their P.K.K. ally.
Although the P.Y.D. in July formally turned its back on the Assad regime by entering an agreement with rival Kurdish opposition movements, suspicion is still rife within the Kurdish camp.
Charges of Rising Repression
Domestically, at a time when Washington and Europe are praising Turkey as a model of Muslim democracy for the Arab world, Turkish human rights advocates say Mr. Erdogan’s government has been showing an ominous trend toward repressing freedom of the press through a mixture of intimidation, arrests and financial machinations, including the sale in 2008 of a leading newspaper and a television station to a company linked to the prime minister’s son-in-law.
As of early January 2012, there were 97 members of the news media in jail in Turkey, including journalists, publishers and distributors, according to the Turkish Journalists’ Union, a figure that rights groups say exceeds the number detained in China. The Turkish government denies the figure and insists that with the exception of four cases, those arrested have all been charged with activities other than reporting.

The arrests threaten to darken the image of Mr. Erdogan, who is lionized in the Middle East as a powerful regional leader who can stand up to Israel and the West. Widely credited with taming Turkey’s military and forging a religiously conservative government that marries strong economic growth with democracy and religious tolerance, he has proved prickly and thin-skinned on more than one occasion. It is that sensitivity bordering on arrogance, human rights advocates say, that contributes to his animus against the news media.

syria 7 Aug and Iran

Turkey condemns Iranian accusations over Syria

Reuters – 5 hrs ago

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday condemned comments by an Iranian official blaming Ankara for the bloodshed in Syria and warning Turkey it would be next, as unacceptable and inappropriate, and urged Iran to honor its ties as neighbors.

"It is unacceptable and irresponsible that Iranian officials in various posts continue to target our country through their statements, although Turkey's principled foreign policy is known to everyone," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

"Everyone knows who, inside and outside Syria, is responsible for the human tragedy, caused by the Syrian regime. They will be called to account by history and human conscience."

The statement came just ahead of an unscheduled visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi to Turkey on Tuesday.

The Foreign Office singled out the "baseless allegations and inappropriate threats" made by the Iranian chief of general staff Hassan Firouzabadi on the website of the Iran Revolutionary Guards.

Firouzabadi said Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey were responsible for the bloodshed and accused them of helping the "war-raging goals of America".

Salehi's talks are to focus on Syria and a group of Iranians seized by rebels there.

"Our minister will particularly raise these issues with Iranian foreign minister Mr. Salehi in their meeting today," the statement said, adding: "We call Iranian officials to stop baseless statements about our country and act in a way to honor our neighbor relations."

(Reporting by Ece Toksabay; Writing by Alexandra Hudson; Editing by Jon Hemming)